ABSTRACT
Background: Since the pandemic outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), the health system capacity in highly endemic areas has been overwhelmed. Approaches to efficient management are urgently needed. We aimed to develop and validate a score for early prediction of clinical deterioration of COVID-19 patients. Methods: In this retrospective multicenter cohort study, we included 1138 mild to moderate COVID-19 patients admitted to 33 hospitals in Guangdong Province from December 27, 2019 to March 4, 2020 (N =818; training cohort), as well as two hospitals in Hubei Province from January 21 to February 22, 2020 (N =320; validation cohort) in the analysis. Results: The 14-day cumulative incidences of clinical deterioration were 7.9% and 12.1% in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. An Early WArning Score (EWAS) (ranging from 0 to 4.5), comprising of age, underlying chronic disease, neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio, C-reactive protein, and D-dimer levels, was developed (AUROC: 0.857). By applying the EWAS, patients were categorized into low-, medium-, and high risk groups (cut-off values: two and three). The 14-day cumulative incidence of clinical deterioration in the low-risk group was 1.8%, which was significantly lower than the incidence rates in the medium- (14.4%) and high-risk (40.9%) groups (P
Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Chronic DiseaseABSTRACT
We report temporal patterns of viral shedding in 94 laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 patients and modelled COVID-19 infectiousness profile from a separate sample of 77 infector-infectee transmission pairs. We observed the highest viral load in throat swabs at the time of symptom onset, and inferred that infectiousness peaked on or before symptom onset. We estimated that 44% of transmission could occur before first symptoms of the index. Disease control measures should be adjusted to account for probable substantial pre-symptomatic transmission.